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Silver |
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General Characteristics
- Silver's unique properties make it a very
useful 'Industrial Commodity', despite it being
classed as a precious metal.
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 Demand for silver is built on three main
pillars; industrial uses, photography and Jewellery & silverware
accounting for 342, 205 and 259 million ounces
respectively in 2002.
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Just over half of mined silver comes from
Mexico, Peru and United States, respectively,
the first, second and fourth largest producing
countries. The third largest is Australia.
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Primary mines produce
about 27 percent of world silver, while
around 73 percent comes as a by-product of
gold, copper, lead, and zinc mining.
- The price of silver is not only a function
of its primary output but more a function of
the price of other metals also, as world mine
production is more a function of the prices
of other metals.
- The tie between silver and economic activity
is strong, given that around two-thirds of
total silver fabrication is in the industrial
and photographic sectors.
- Often a faster growth in demand against
supply leads to drop in stocks with government
and investors.
- Economically viable primary silver mine
is a function of the world silver price level.
World Silver Supply from Above-ground
Stocks
Million
Ounces |
| |
2001 |
2002 |
Implied
Net Disinvestment |
-9.5 |
20.9 |
Producer
Hedging |
18.9 |
-24.8 |
Net
Government Sales |
87.2 |
71.3 |
Sub-total
Bullion |
96.6 |
67.4 |
Scrap |
182.7 |
184,9 |
| Total |
279.3 |
252.3 |
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Indian Scenario
- Silver imports into India for domestic consumption
in 2002 was 3,400 tons down 25 % from record
4,540 tons in 2001.
- Open General License (OGL) imports are the
only significant source of supply to the Indian
market.
- Non-duty paid silver for the export sector
rose sharply in 2002, up by close to 200% year-on-year
to 150 tons.
- Around 50% of India's silver requirements
last year were met through imports of Chinese
silver and other important sources of supply
being UK, CIS, Australia and Dubai.
- Indian industrial demand in 2002 is estimated
at 1375 tons down by 13 % from 1,579 tons in
2001. In spite of this fall, India is still
one of the largest users of silver in the world,
ranking alongside Industrial giants like Japan
and the United States.
- By contrast with United States and Japan,
Indian industrial offtake for fabrication in
hardcore industrial applications like electronics
and brazing alloys accounts for only 15 % and
the rest being for foils for use in the decorative
covering of food, plating of Jewellery, silverware
and jari.
- In India silver price volatility is also
an important determinant of silver demand as
it is for gold.
India Industrial Fabrication , 2002
Percentage |
Pharmacy & Chemicals |
22.4 |
Foil |
9.0 |
Plating |
13.7 |
Solders & Brazing |
5.4 |
Electrical |
13.5 |
Photography |
0.85 |
Jari |
17.1 |
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World Markets
London Bullion Market is the global hub of
OTC (Over-The-Counter) trading in silver.
Comex futures in New York is where most fund
activity is focused
Frequency Distribution of Silver London
Fixing Volatility from 1995 till date
| Percentage
Change |
> 7% |
5
- 7 % |
3
- 5% |
<3% |
| Daily |
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| Number
of times |
7 |
10 |
85 |
2086 |
| Percentage
times |
0.3 |
0.5 |
3.9 |
95.3 |
| Weekly |
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| Number
of times |
9 |
15 |
50 |
363 |
| Percentage
times |
21 |
3.4 |
11.4 |
83.1 |
Biggest Price Movement since 1995
Between February 4 - 6, 1998, daily prices rocketed
by 22.3%, based on a noted US financier had accumulated
nearly 130 ounces of physical silver.
Note: Post September 1999
daily silver prices have not shown more than
5% movement once and weekly silver prices only
once. |
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