General Characteristics
- Soybeans on crushing and solvent extraction yield
soyoil at 18% recovery and soymeal. About 85% is
crushed worldwide.
-
Soybean and soyoil production of 170-185 and 25-31
million tons account for 55-58% and 25-30% of global
oilseed and oil production respectively.
-
US, Brazil, Argentina, China, India are the major
producers in order of production. In US, India, China
crop starts arriving from Aug-Sept, while it starts
from Jan-Feb in S. America.
-
In the world 55-60, 8-10 and 42-45 million tons
of beans, oil and meal are traded annually.
-
USA (20-30 million tons), Brazil (12-18 million
tons), Argentina (5-10 million tons) are the exporters
of beans, while China (18-20 million tons) and EU
(15-18 million tons) are the major importers.
- Argentina (3-5 million tons) and Brazil (2-3 million
tons) are the major exporters of oil. China (1.5-2.5
million tons) and India (1-2 million tons) are the
major importers of oil.
- Crushers, refined oil manufacturers, animal feed
manufacturers and farmers are the major stakeholders
in the soy value chain worldwide.
Important World Soy Markets
- Chicago (CBOT), largest soy futures market
- China, where beans and meal are traded at Dalian
Commodity Exchange
- Argentina and Brazil FOB determine the physical
prices
Indian Scenario
- India produces 5-7 million tons of beans, 1 million
ton of oil and 3-5 million tons of soymeal in a normal
year.
- With imports, the total oil availability in the
country is around 2.5 million tons.
- Madhya Pradesh (3.5-4.5 million tons), Maharashtra,
Rajasthan are the major producers of soybean in India.
- The production is highly dependent on the monsoon
and fluctuates between years.
- Soy is a Kharif crop, sown in June-July and harvested
by September-October. Peak arrivals are from October-November.
- The prices follow the international sentiments
and display very high volatility.
India In World Soy Industry
(Rounded
figs.) |
India |
World |
%
Share |
| |
(In
million tons) |
|
Annual Seed
Production |
6 |
180 |
3 |
Annual Oil
Production |
1 |
30 |
3.3 |
Annual Oil
Imports |
1.5 |
9 |
16.7 |
Annual Oil
Consumption |
2.5 |
30 |
8.3 |
Annual Meal
Production |
3.5 |
130 |
3.5 |
Annual Meal
Exports |
2.5 |
43 |
5.8 |
Annual Meal
Consumption |
1 |
130 |
0.7 |
Daily Price Volatility of Refined Soyoil in India
| Daily
Volatility in % |
< 1 |
1
- 3 |
> 3 |
| % Occurrence |
81.95 |
17.69 |
0.36 |
Maximum Daily Variation in 2003-04 = 3.8%
Major Trading Centres
Indore, Ujjain, Dewas, Mandsore in Madhya Pradesh,
Nagpur in Maharashtra, Kota in Rajasthan are major
trading centres.
Market Influencing Factors
- Weather at all the producing centers, domestic
and international. The pod bearing period, being
the most crucial.
- The area planted, determined by the price of soybean
against that of competitive crops, viz., maize, jowar,
bajra.
- International price movement, the futures market
at CBOT being the major international reference market.
- Pests and diseases.
- The supply-demand and price scenario of competitive
oils, viz., palmoil.
- Demand for soymeal from the feed sector and the
entire fundamentals of this sector.
- The crush margin between meal, oil and seed
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