
India ranks sixth in the world in terms of energy demand accounting for 3.5 per
cent of world primary energy demand.1 With 8 per cent Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) growth target set by the Planning Commission of India through its Tenth
Five Year Plan (2002-07), the energy demand is expected to grow at 4.8 per
cent. Although, the commercial energy consumption has grown rapidly over
the last two decades, a large part of India’s population does not have
access to commercial energy. The per capita energy consumption is a low 305
Kilogram of Oil Equivalent (kgoe) as compared to the world’s average
of 1,487 kgoe.
The average annual world economic growth in 1997-2020 period is projected at
3.2 per cent while the energy growth rate is estimated at 2.1 per cent per annum.
This yields an elasticity of energy consumption at about 66 per cent. In India’s
case, the elasticity was more than unity for 1953 to 2001 period. However, the
elasticity for primary commercial energy consumption for 1991-2000 period is
less than unity. This could be attributed to several factors, such as, the improvement
in efficiency of energy use and the consequent lowering of the overall energy
intensity of the economy and the higher share of hydrocarbons in the overall
energy mix. The projected annual requirement of commercial energy is estimated
at about 406 Million Tonnes Oil Equivalent (Mtoe) and 554 Mtoe by 2006-07 and
2011-12, respectively.
India’s primary commercial energy use is mostly based on fossil fuels.
Although the country has significant coal and hydro resource potential, it is
relatively poor in oil and gas resources. As a result it has to depend on imports
of oil to meet its energy supplies.
The geographical distribution of the available primary commercial energy sources
in the country is quite skewed, with 77 per cent of the hydro potential located
in the northern and northeastern region of the country. Similarly, about 70
per cent of the total coal reserves are located in the eastern region while
most of the hydrocarbon reserves lie in the eastern, western and northeastern
regions. India has been witnessing an expansion in the total energy use during
the last five decades with a shift from non-commercial to commercial sources
of energy. Accordingly, the production of commercial sources of energy has
also increased significantly. Though coal production increased about three
times from 114 MMT in 1980-81 to 325 MMT in 2001-02, the share of coal in total
energy supplies has declined from a level of 59.4 per cent to 50.4 per cent.
This could be partly due to the increase in share of inferior grade coal in
overall coal production. The primary reason, however, is that the share of
hydrocarbons in the total primary energy consumption of the country has been
increasing over the years and is currently estimated at 44.2 per cent as compared
to 37.2 per cent in 1980-81. The trends in primary commercial energy supply
from various sources between 1953-54 and 2001-02. India is a large importer
of crude and is also set to commence import of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
from 2004 onwards. If the present trend continues, India’s oil & gas import dependency is likely to grow beyond the current
level of 70 per cent. Therefore, official strategies of the government of India
are framed with aggressive focus on increasing exploration activities to enhance
the level of recoverable reserves in the country apart from appropriate import
strategies with supply security and fuel diversification in mind. India has witnessed
increased exploration and production activities since the introduction of New
Exploration Licencing Policy (NELP). Already, good results in the form of recent
gas discoveries in KG deep-sea offshore fields have been discussed. Also, state
interventions are being made to ensure the affordability of LNG in the Indian
gas markets. Natural gas has come a long way from being an unwanted by-product
that must be flared and destroyed to the fastest growing primary energy source.
The natural gas share of total energy consumption is projected to
increase from 23 per cent in 2001 to 28% in 2025.
The most robust growth in natural gas demand is expected
to take place in developing nations, where overall
demand rises by 3.9 per cent per year between 2001
and 2025. The level of natural gas use in the developing
world by 2025 is projected to be two and a half times
the 2001 level. Much of the growth in the region
is expected to fuel electricity generation, but infrastructure
projects are also expected to displace polluting
home heating and cooking fuels with natural gas in
major urban areas. Several factors contribute to
natural gas becoming the preferred fuel of the future.
It has the advantage of being a clean and an environment
friendly fuel, has better heat efficiencies, is widely
distributed geographically, and finally, it is less
prone to price fluctuations. As of January 1, 2003,
proved world natural gas reserves, as reported by
Oil & Gas Journal, were estimated at 5,501 TCF,
50 TCF more than the estimate for 2002. Most (about
71 per cent) of the world’s natural gas reserves
are located in the Middle East and the East Europe/
Former Soviet Union, with Russia and Iran together
accounting for about 45 per cent of the world’s
natural gas reserves. Reserves in the rest of the
world are fairly evenly distributed on a regional
basis. However, most of the increase is attributed
to developing countries, where gas reserves have
increased by 37 TCF since last year’s survey.
Among the regions of the developing world, Africa
and Asia had the largest revisions in proved natural
gas reserves between 2002 and 2003. In Africa, the
entire increment of 23 TCF in gas reserves is attributable
to Egypt, where a marked increase in exploration
activity over the past few years has resulted in
a substantial increase in gas reserves, including
finds in the Western Desert, Gulf of Suez, Mediterranean
Sea, and Nile Delta. Developing Asia saw an increase
in reserves of 11 TCF over the past year. Among the
developing Asian countries, the greatest increases
in proven reserves were in China and India, where
reserves grew by 5 TCF and 4 TCF, respectively. Modest
increases in proved reserves were witnessed in Pakistan,
Philippines, and Thailand. According to World Petroleum
Assessment 2000, a significant volume of natural
gas remains to be discovered. The mean estimate for
worldwide-undiscovered gas is 4,839 TCF. A further
3,000 TCF is estimated to be “stranded or remote
locations” reserves. The amount of natural
gas traded across international borders continues
to grow, increasing from barely 19 per cent of the
world’s consumption in 1995 to 23 percent in
2001. Pipeline exports grew by 39 per cent and the
LNG trade grew by 55 per cent between 1995 and 2001.
The fact that many sources of natural gas are far
from demand centers, coupled with cost decrease throughout
the LNG chain, is making LNG increasingly competitive,
contributing to the expectation of strong worldwide
growth for LNG. The world’s natural gas trade
can be divided into two major trading regions: the
Pacific, where LNG is the predominant commodity and
the Atlantic where pipeline gas as well as LNG are
traded. The future demand for natural gas is expected
to come from developing nations, such as, India and
China, which currently have very low per capita gas
consumption as compared to consumption in USA, the
former Soviet Union, etc. But these developing markets
are expected to be extremely price sensitive. Traditionally,
the conventional, long-term, take or pay (ToP) LNG
supply contracts so signed were rigid and offered
little flexibility to buyers. These contracts were
primarily meant to address sellers’ concerns
and to recover the huge capital expenditure incurred
in setting up the liquefaction and transportation
infrastructure on the LNG projects during the developmental
phase. This development phase is now agreed to be
over and the market is now reaching a mature stage.
The last couple of years saw the onset of a new era
in LNG trade wherein the pricing and contract terms
are flexible. The LNG buyers who were uncomfortable
with conventional contracts because of the growing
demand uncertainty and price sensitivity of the end
customer started voicing their concerns, and this
became evident in most of the deals that took place
last year setting the momentum for buyers to have
hard negotiations with the sellers. The recent Guangdong
project bargain deal has set a precedent for future
deals. In August 2002, an Australian LNG consortium
(North West Shelf) finally succeeded in getting a
supply agreement signed with China for its first
LNG receiving terminal situated in Guangdong. The
contract term is reported to be 25 years from 2005-2006,
and the contract volume 3 MMTPA. According to reports,
the deal was struck for under 3 $/MMBtu (for crude
oil price of $20/barrel) causing serious unrest amongst
the Japanese buyers who were so far paying almost
20 per cent more. Correcting the Guangdong price
by distance puts the LNG price in Japan at a little
above $3. In comparison, the exship price of LNG
imported from NWS to Japan stays within the latter
half of the 3 $/MMBtu mark when linked to $20/barrel
of crude oil (estimated from customs clearance statistics
and others). Hence, if the reported Guangdong price
is correct, the resultant differentials
amount to as much as 20 per cent. Also, India’s
Petronet project reached an agreement with RasGas
of Qatar on the price offered to the Dahej LNG terminal
for the supply of 5 MMTPA of LNG. According to unconfirmed
media reports appeared in October 2003, the final
negotiated price between Petronet LNG and RasGas
has pricing designed to limit volatility by fixing
the crude price at $20/barrel for the beginning years.
The new contract price provides complete insulation
from oil price fluctuations. Spot trading of LNG,
which is a yardstick of flexibility, is increasing
at a rapid rate. Transactions under short-term contracts
(less than a year and inclusive of spot trading)
in 2001 recorded a tenfold increase over 1992 levels
and reached a hefty 8 per cent of total LNG trade
(IEA, “Flexibility in Natural Gas Supply and
Demand”). The coming years will also see innovative
logistic and LNG transportation solutions. The increased
short-term trading of LNG and the swapping of cargoes
to optimize shipping will be the ways in which suppliers
would respond to the market needs. LNG trade shall
also become more global in nature with LNG ships
trading between the Atlantic Basin and Asia Pacific
and Middle East project start to play a swing role
between the regions. Decreasing cost of LNG-ship
building will mean more options to buyers and sellers.
The future will also see new risk distribution models
wherein buyers shall undertake the risks and rewards
that were so far considered to be under the domain
of the sellers only. The changes taking place in
the LNG industry provide both challenges and opportunities
to the stakeholders to achieve price levels and contract
terms that balance the expectations of both buyer
sand sellers. If LNG is to successfully compete with
existing fuels in the developing countries, innovative
pricing structures and contractual terms will have
to be developed that take into account the industry’s
changing characteristics. With these innovations
in place, LNG would establish itself as a viable
energy option in developing markets.
Natural gas is a highly flammable hydrocarbon gas
consisting chiefly of methane (CH4). Although methane
is always the chief component, it may also include
other gases such as oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen, ethane,
ethylene, propane, and even some helium.
The gas is found entrapped in the earth's crust at
varying depths beneath impervious strata, such as
limestone, and may or may not be in association with
oil. If oil is present it is called wet gas, else
dry gas.
Natural gas is a colorless, odorless fuel that burns
cleaner than many other traditional fossil fuels.
Natural gas is used for heating, cooling and production
of electricity besides for various other industrial
purposes. The principal constituents of natural gas
are Methane and Ethane, but most gases contain varying
amounts of heavier hydrocarbons that may be removed
by processing. In India, the C3 and C4 fractions
of natural gas are usually recovered in a Liquefied
Petroleum Gas (LPG) fractionator plant for making
LPG. Typically, a 1:1 Propane-Butane mix on mass
basis is used for making LPG in India. After the
recovery of the Propane and Butane fractions from
the ‘rich gas’ stream, the stream of
gas downstream of LPG recovery Plant (known as lean
gas) is returned to the pipeline system. While all
fractions of the rich gas can be as such used by
fertilizer and power plants as feedstock or fuel
respectively, the value added to the C2, C3, C4,
C5 and heavier fractions is greater when they are
used for the production of LPG or when C2 and C3
is used for the production of petrochemicals. The
removal and separation of individual l hydrocarbons
by processing is possible because of the differences
in their physical properties. As each component has
a distinctive weight, boiling point, vapor and physical
characteristics, its separation from other components
is a relatively simple physical operation. Natural
gas may also contain moisture, Hydrogen Sulfide,
Carbon Dioxide, Nitrogen, Helium, or other components
that may be diluents and/or contaminants. Natural
gas is processed to remove unwanted water vapor,
solids and/or other contaminants that would interfere
with pipeline transportation or marketing of the
gas. Liquefied Natural Gas – LNG is nothing
but natural gas reduced to a liquid State by cooling
it to -161°C. Once liquefied, the natural gas
is more compact occupying 1/600th of its gaseous
volume. Natural gas is liquefied because in gaseous
form it is extremely voluminous and cannot be transported
to long distances as gas fields are far-off from
the user market. Liquefied
form eliminates the need for more room for gas transportation.
LNG is transported in special tankers and brought
to the receiving regasification terminal in another
location. It is regasified at the terminal itself
and transported through a pipeline.
Natural Gas meets many of the requirements for fuel
in a modern day industrial society. It is efficient,
clean burning fuel, eco friendly and has flexibility
of control. The key uses are:
Electricity generation by utilities: Fuel for base
load power plants and for use in combined cycle/co-generation
power plants.
Public and commercial: LNG is clean fuel for use
as is piped Gas in household. Economically cheaper
as compared to LPG. In fact most of the Western Countries
use piped gas in houses. The household use of piped
gas is expected to increase in future.
Industrial: As an under boiler fuel for steam raising
and heating applications.
Alternative Motor fuel to diesel: With only one carbon
and four hydrogen atoms per molecule, natural gas
is the cleanest burning fossil fuel. Moreover, it
has 30 to 40 % higher fuel efficiency for running
motor vehicles. Due to environmental considerations,
the use of natural gas in Automotive Sector is bound
to increase considerably on account of higher efficiency
and being a cleaner fuel.
Petrochemicals: A variety of chemical products e.g.
methanol can be derived from natural gas.
1 Billion Cubic Metre = 35.3 Billion Cubic Feet Natural
gas
= 0.90 Million Tonnes Crude Oil
= 0.73 Million Tonnes LNG
= 36 Trillion British Thermal Units
= 6.29 Million Barrels of Oil Equiv.
1 million british thermal unit = 1 thousand cubic
feet (Mcf)
1 MMT LNG = 1.23 MMT oil equivalent
1MMTPA LNG = 3.5 MMSCMD of Natural gas
MMSCMD: Million Standard Cubic Metres Per Day
The relative merit of natural gas to alternate hydrocarbon
fuels is driving the demand for gas. Gas is a clean
fuel offering higher thermal efficiencies (in power
generation) and higher yields (in the manufacture
of fertilizers). Gas turbines have lower capital
costs, shorter gestation period and can supply peaking
power. Further, it contains no Sulphur making it
ideal fuel for transportation purposes. Lower CO2/
CO emission implies environmental friendliness of
the fuel. In addition to its environment friendliness,
natural gas has other advantages. It is lighter than
air and, therefore, safer (in case of any leakage,
being lighter than air, it does not tend to accumulate
and settle down). It is extremely convenient to use,
since customers just have to switch it on like electricity.
There is no storage needed at the users’ end
which means that they can productively use the space
and not worry about running out of stored fuel. Moreover,
consumers do not have to take the trouble of handling
the fuel as in the case of coal. Then, consumers
are billed for the fuel that actually enters their
premises, unlike in all other fuels where they are
billed for the quantity that has gone out of the
supplier premises.
Almost 70 per cent of India’s natural gas reserves
are found in the Bombay High basin and in Gujarat.
Offshore gas reserves are also located in Andhra
Pradesh coast (Krishna Godavari Basin) and Tamil
Nadu coast (Cauvery Basin). Onshore reserves are
located in Gujarat and the North Eastern states (Assam
and Tripura). Small amounts of reserves have also
been found in Rajasthan. Although the state owned
enterprises increased the reserve base significantly
over the period 1975- 90, the gap between domestic
production and demand widened significantly in the
90s. As a result, initiatives were taken to encourage
private sector investment in the E&P sector,
with exploration acreage offered to private companies
under production sharing arrangements with the Indian
government. Accordingly, in June 1994 the government
awarded the first Joint Venture (JV) fields to be
operated by joint ventures of state enterprises with
private companies. Until April 1998, E&P activities
in the country were steered mainly by the PSUs – ONGC
and OIL. However, with less than 25 per cent of the
country’s sedimentary areas covered under exploratory
surveys, along with the stagnating domestic hydrocarbon
production and declining reserve replacement ratios,
the Government of India felt the urgency to harness
its potentially substantial hydrocarbon reserves.
Therefore in 1999, the Government of India introduced
the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) to provide
attractive incentives and level playing field to
new entrants, including foreign companies in the
E&P sector. After the opening up of the E&P
sector apart from ONGC and OIL, many players including
big domestic and international companies entered
the arena. Bidding results in all the four rounds
of NELP so far show that while ONGC is set to dominate,
Reliance is emerging as an important player.
The total resource base of oil and gas is the entire
volume formed and trapped in-place within the Earth
before any production. The largest portion of this
base is non-recoverable by current or foreseeable
technology. This inability is either because of un
favourable economics, or intractable physical forces,
or a combination of both. At the next level, the
recoverable resources are divided into discovered
and undiscovered segments. In India reserves are
classified as (a) Prognosticated (which is basically
all the resources "expected" to be contained),
(b) geological or in-place which is discovered resources
but not recoverable and (c) balance recoverable reserves.
The total proven reserves on natural gas in India
as at the end of FY2002 was about 750 billion cubic
metres. The giant gas discovery in the KG baisn resulted
in the reserves at the end of FY2003 increase to
920 billion cubic metres (mcm). The total gas production
in India was about 31,400 mcm in 2002-03 compared
with 2,358 mcm in 1980-81.
At this production level, India's reserves are likely
to last for around 29 years; that is significantly
longer than the 19 years estimated for oil reserves.
The current production of natural gas in the country
is around 86 MMSCMD. After taking into account the
internal consumption, flaring, shrinkage on account
of extraction of LPG and C 2 and C 3 fractions, etc.
the net availability of gas for supply to the consumers
is to the extent of around 68 MMSCMD. As against
this, the total firm commitments made in terms of
gas allocations to various consumers is to the extent
of about 120 MMSCMD. This figure indicates the allocation
made and does not take into account the large unmet
demand of gas. As per the study conducted by an Expert
Group constituted by Ministry of Petroleum and Natural
Gas a few years earlier, the demand for gas was assessed
at 188 MMSCMD in 2004-05 and 283 MMSCMD in 2009-10.
The Government under the technical assistance of
Asian Development Bank also commissioned a
study. This study conducted by M/s Bechtel Ltd.,
UK also indicated that the demand could vary between
203 MMSCMD (high case) to 140 MMSCMD (low case) in
2012. In another estimate the same study indicated
that the demand supply gap would increase to 226
MMSCMD by 2020. Similarly, the India Hydrocarbon
Vision –2025 also estimated the demand at 117
MMSCMD by 2002, which would gradually increase to
322 MMSCMD by 2025 in one scenario and to 391 MMSCMD
as per another scenario. Therefore, the demand-supply
gap ranges from 47 MMSCMD in 2002 to nearly 355 MMSCMD
in 2025. Currently, only 68 MMSCMD of gas is available
to the consumers. The gas recently tapped by Reliance
in Krishna-Godavari Basin, in Andhra Pradesh, will
be available to the consumer in another two to three
years. However, even if the entire 40 MMSCMD4 from
Reliance’s gas find is added to the current
availability of gas, the total GAIL - Infraline Natural
Gas in India: A Reference Book Various Gas Demand
Estimates for 2006-07 gas that could be supplied
to the consumer comes to 108 MMSCMD, leaving still
a gap with unmet demand.
The current scenario is likely to change, as the
supply position will improve considerably by 2006-07
as a result of development of new discoveries. There
are a number of estimates of demand made at different
points of time by different agencies whose objectives
were also different. Therefore, there are variations
in the results of these studies. While some of the
studies have taken price elasticity of demand in
consideration but most of them have not. The chapter
on Demand-Supply presents five such cases. First
case presents the potential gas demand estimates
of GLC based on the existing allocations and growing
applications for further allocation of more gas.
The second case gives the estimates as per the Hydrocarbon
Vision 2025 and the third case is the summation of
gas master plan developed by Asian Development Bank
in 1999. Fourth case highlights the GDP Indexed demand
growth as estimated in a study conducted by TERI,
which is based on the calculation of imputed value
of gas and covers the price sensitivity. Finally,
the fifth case throws some light on the region-wise
estimates after including the likely supply from
recent gas finds, such as, those of Reliance.
Unlike in the case of crude oil production in India,
the production of natural gas is showing an upward
trend although at a nominal production growth rate
of 3.6% per annum (during FY1998-2002). In fact,
natural gas production in India has been increasing
continuously. The production of natural gas was about
8 b cm in 1985-86, 26.4 bcm in 1997-98, 27.4 bcm
in 1998-99, 28.4 bcm in 1999-00, 29.4 bcm in 2000-01
and 30.4 bcm in 2001-02.
The production of natural gas by private players
from the discovered fields has increased over the
last five years. This has been on account of additional
development in the fields awarded to these players
in the initial rounds of development in the early
1990s.
Among the States, Gujarat accounts for the major
share of onshore natural gas production (33%) followed
by Assam/Nagaland (27%). The following Table presents
the State-wise natural gas production figures for
the last few years.
India’s natural gas production reached a level
of 31.4 BCM in 2002-03, of which, 82.78 per cent
was from the National Oil Companies (ONGC and OIL)
and the remaining 17.22 per cent from private players,
including joint ventures. Today, India accounts for
about 0.5 per cent of the world’s total natural
gas reserves. The recent discovery of major gas deposit
in Krishna-Godavari (KG) by Reliance and further
positive indications from other licensees drilling
in KG and other basins could change these figures.
The discovery stands as the biggest gas find in India
in three decades and was among the world’s
largest gas discoveries in 2002. This is also the
first ever discovery by an Indian private sector
company. Reliance hopes to have the field in production
by 2006-07, with daily production of up to 40 MMSCMD.
Apart from Reliance discovery, there are other gas
finds by ONGC, Cairn Energy, Niko Resources, GSPL-GAIL
in the recent time. The
new discoveries will definitely ensure more energy
security for India, as the country will become self-sufficient
in resources. This, in turn, will help the development
of other sectors (power, fertilizer, cement, steel,
etc.), which are currently deprived of gas use because
of non-availability. Apart from the potential in
conventional gas reserves, CBM and Gas Hydrates are
expected to be an additional source of supply in
the long term. CBM blocks nominated by DGH are estimated
to contain 18 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas in
place and are estimated to support a gas production
rate of 20-40 MMSCMD. Commercial production in India
is expected to commence by 2006-07.
The increased energy demand driven by high economic
growth has widened the demand-supply gap. The demand
for natural gas in particular, has been increasing
because of its environment friendly nature, making
it a competitive fuel/feedstock in power and fertilizer
sectors. The existence of inferior quality coal coupled
with high transportation costs and environmental
concerns is grossly eroding its usage for meeting
energy demands. With the result, natural gas is emerging
as a popular fuel. The country has not been able
to meet the demand with the available domestic production
till recently. The demand is likely to grow, rapidly
in the near future. Given that the domestic gas supply
is not likely to keep pace with demand, India will
have to import gas either via pipeline or as LNG
even after the recent gas discoveries. There are
significant gas reserves in countries adjacent to
India that could be utilized to meet the import requirements
indicated by the supply shortfall. These reserves
are primarily concentrated in the Middle East (Iran
and Qatar), Turkmenistan, South Asia (Indonesia,
Malaysia) and Australia. Iran provides both a possible
source of gas and the best access to the gas/oil
reserves of Central Asia. The gas reserves in the
Eastern neighborhood are of strategic importance
to India. Myanmar had initial success in the exploration
of its offshore reserves. Bangladesh has an active
exploration program and a large potential for exploring
gas. Indian Government thus, has been actively thinking
of a long-term co-operation with these two nations
in the field of energy. The Indian Government has
put LNG/Gas imports under ‘Open General License’ and
companies are free to develop such projects and market
gas directly. The Foreign Investment Promotion Board
(FIPB) has given approval to several proposals of
LNG terminals. To give a thrust and support to the
develop- ment of LNG trade in India, Government has
also set up a joint Venture Company – Petronet
LNG Limited (promoted by ONGC, IOC, BPCL and GAIL),
to execute LNG projects at Dahej (Gujarat) and Kochi
(Kerala). Also, private players like Shell are also
participating actively in setting up LNG terminals.
In view of the need to create gas sector infrastructure
for sustained development of gas markets across the
country, Gas Authority of India (GAIL), now known
as GAIL (India) Limited, was set up by Government
of India on August 16, 1984 with the responsibility
to develop pipelines and to process, market and plan
the optimum utilization of natural gas, thereby enabling
OIL and ONGC to concentrate on the exploration and
production of hydrocarbons in India. Prior to the
formation of GAIL, approximately 725 km of local
regional pipelines were constructed and operated
by ONGC, apart from around 320 km of pipeline laid
by various customers. In 1986, work began on the
Hazira-Bijaipur- Jagdishpur (HBJ) gas transmission
line linking the gas sourced from Bassein fields
landing at Hazira in Gujarat with fertilizer, power
and industrial consumers in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya
Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh. In 1987-88, the country’s
first crosscountry, 1700 km long, 18.2 MMSCMD capacity
HBJ pipeline system was successfully commissioned
by GAIL in 22 months,14 months ahead of schedule.
Today, GAIL is the national gas company in India
with a ready-built infrastructure for transmission
and marketing of natural gas over long distances
in the country. GAIL owns and operates around 4,500
km of pipeline which currently transports over 22
BCM of natural gas every year. The most prominent
pipeline of GAIL is the 2,700 km HBJ pipeline which
has a capacity to handle 33.4 MMSCMD of natural gas.
The other pipelines of GAIL are the regional ones
located in Mumbai, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh,
Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Assam and Tripura. Gujarat
State Petroleum Corporation (GSPC), a Gujarat
Government owned company, has also entered the gas
transportation business and is setting up an Rs 32
billion, 2,500 km pipeline network for transportation
of gas within the state of Gujarat. This two-phase
pipeline project is being executed by Gujarat State
Petronet Ltd. (GSPL), a special purpose vehicle (SPV)
floated by GSPC. Phase 1 involves an investment of
Rs 12 billion and covers a distance of 525 km from
Vadnagar in the north of Gujarat to Vapi in the south.
Phase II involves extending the network to Saurashtra,
Surendranagar, Rajkot and Jamnagar. The length of
this segment is 500-600 km and the investment involves
Rs 20 billion. Among other regional pipelines, Assam
Gas Company has a prominent pipeline network in northeast
India. In addition to its 250 km pipeline linking
Sibsagar with Marsharita in Assam, it has over 350
km of branch pipelines in the region. After the discovery
of gas reserves in KG Basin in October 2002, Reliance
is also having a re-look on its proposed pipeline
network. RIL, which has plans to lay a network of
pipelines across the country to transport petro products
from its 27 MMT Jamnagar refinery to a large number
of cities in the country, now plans to acquire the
right of usage to lay two separate gas pipelines
for (i) transporting the KG gas to Goa in the country’s
western part and (ii) from Jamnagar to Cuttack in
the east coast. The smaller pipeline networks of
GAIL supply gas to industries from offshore and onshore
gas fields in the western, northeastern and southern
parts of the country. The regional pipelines are
in the states of Mumbai, Gujarat, Rajasthan Andhra
Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Assam and Tripura.
City Gas Distribution Systems In the eighties, GAIL
initiated techno-economic feasibility studies for
gas distribution in the metro cities of Mumbai and
Delhi through Sofragaz and British Gas respectively.
Based on the encouraging recommendations of these
studies, the Government of India approved gas allocation
for Mumbai and Delhi. Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL),
a Joint Venture company of GAIL, British Gas and
the Government of Maharashtra was incorporated in
May 1995 for supply and distribution of natural gas
(NG) to domestic, commercial, small industrial consumers
and CNG to vehicular consumers in Mumbai through
its integrated gas pipeline network. Similarly Indraprastha
Gas Limited (IGL), a JVC of GAIL, BPCL and Government
of National Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi was
incorporated in December 1998 for developing a distribution
network for the residential, transport and commercial
consumers in Delhi. Gujarat Gas Company Limited (GGCL),
promoted by British Gas, has developed the gas distribution
network in Surat, Bharuch and Ankleshwar of Gujarat.
In Baroda (Vadodara), the distribution network has
been developed by Municipal Corporation of Vadodara.
In Andhra Pradesh, GAIL, HPCL, APIIC and KSPL have
jointly promoted Bhagyanagar Gas Limited in August
2003. The objective of Bhagyanagar Gas is to provide
city gas distribution (to start with in Vijaywada
and Hyderabad-Secundrabad), eco friendly fuels (LPG
- to start with in Tirupathi and twin city) to provide
natural gas/LPG to small scale industries and commercial
centres and related services in the State. As per
the direction of the Supreme Court, GAIL is also
supplying gas to the polluting industries in Agra
and Ferozabad of Uttar Pradesh through distribution
system in the area to protect the pristine beauty
of Taj Mahal. Recently, in August 2003, Hon’ble
Supreme Court has issued a directive to the Union
of India and the state governments to draw plans
to introduce clean fuels in 11 cities apart from
the existing cities of Delhi and Mumbai. These are
Kolkatta, Chennai, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad,
Surat, Lucknow, Kanpur, Agra, Pune and Sholapur Under
its Project Blue Sky, GAIL has already drawn plans
to implement city gas projects in the five cities
of Kanpur, Lucknow, Agra, Bareilly and Pune in phases
at an estimated investment of Rs 5.54 billion (Rs
100 crore = 1 billion). Recently, government of Gujarat
has issued No Objection Certificates to various entities
to implement city gas projects in various cities
including Ahmedabad, Vadodara among other cities
in Gujarat. However, it is understood that MoP&NG
is drawing up plans to implement city gas distribution
projects across the country including the 11 cities
as listed out by the Supreme Court through various
project/state specific Joint Venture Companies comprising
GAIL and Oil Marketing Companies like IOC, BPCL and
HPCL; local bodies of the State Governments and other
strategic partners. Planned Pipeline Projects Dahej-Vijaipur
Pipeline (DVPL) Project The Rs 2,936 crores, 610
kms, DVPL project is being implemented by GAIL on
a fast track basis with a squeezed schedule to synchronize
with the Dahej LNG terminal’s completion schedule
of December, 2003. DVPL pipeline shall cater to the
western and northern markets in India along the existing
HBJ corridor. Dahej-Uran Pipeline (DUPL) Project
GAIL has approved the execution of Dahej-Uran Pipe
Line (DUPL). The Rs 1416 crores DUPL project shall
provide the vital trunk pipeline link between the
key gas markets of Maharashtra and Gujarat. Gujarat
Gas Grid Project
The Gas Grid Project promoted by Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd. envisages transporting indigenous natural gas
from production centers and LNG from terminals to
demand centers all over Gujarat through a high pressure
Trunk Pipeline. It is a pipeline transmission project
to deliver gas to end-users and for local distribution.
Pipeline for KG Basin Gas Gas Transportation and
Infrastructure Company Limited (GTICL) a company
promoted by Reliance Industries Ltd. has proposed
to lay a pipeline from Kakinada-Hyderabad-Goa for
which the process of acquisition of land under Petroleum
and Mineral Pipeline (Acquisition of Right of User
in Land) Act, 1962 is underway.
Natural gas is used in a variety of applications,
such as, power plants, fertilizer plants, industrial
units, sponge iron manufacturing, ceramic industries,
transportation industry, air conditioning and other
industrial applications. In India, the fertilizer
and power sectors account for over 74 per cent of
the country’s total natural gas consumption.
The sale of natural gas to fertilizer industry increased
from 20.79 MMSCMD in 1995-96 to 22.10 MMSCMD in 2001-02
and reached 22.49 MMSCMD during April-September 2002.
The share of natural gas as feedstock in nitrogenous
fertilizer production is 47.2 per cent followed by
naphtha, which has 30.8 per cent. Furnace oil and
coal have a share of 10.7 per cent and 2.7 per cent
respectively. The Department of Fertilizer has indicated
that as against the actual supply of 22.10 MMSCMD
gas to the fertilizer sector in 2001-02, the total
gas requirement in 2006-07 would be 43.6 MMSCMD.
The growth in gas demand would mainly come from additional
supplies i.e., re-gasified LNG becoming available
during the Tenth Five Year Plan Period for existing
plants and their expansions. The current average
gas supply to the power sector is 35 MMSCMD. The
estimated requirement for power sector is expected
to grow from the present level of around 35 MMSCMD
to 52 MMSCMD of natural gas/LNG by 2006-07. Being
a relatively clean fuel with lower/nil emission levels
of SOx, NOx and SPM, natural gas in its compressed
form is being promoted by the government as a fuel
for the transport sector, under the directives of
the Supreme Court of India. CNG has already replaced
approximately 531 kl (kilo litre) diesel and 315
kl of petrol in Delhi. In Mumbai CNG has replaced
102 kl of diesel and 350 kl of petrol. Going forward,
GAIL (India) limited has also announced its “Project
Blue Sky” to replicate the success of CNG in
Delhi and Mumbai. CNG for the cities of Agra, Pune,
Kanpur, Lucknow and Faridabad are planned by GAIL
at a cost of Rs 5.54 Pattern of Gas Use in India
bilion during phase-I of this “Project Blue
Sky”. In association with HPCL, GAIL is also
planning to start city gas distribution in Andhra
Pradesh through Bhagyanagar Gas Ltd. Gas based petrochemicals
production plants rely on domestic production of
C2/C3 fractions by processing of gas. Based on the
requirements indicated by the Ministry of Chemicals
and Fertilizers and Ministry of Power and also considering
that the sectoral mix of gas use in 2006-07, would
be comparable to the sectoral mix prevailing at the
end of 2001-02 (80 per cent gas use by power and
fertilizer sectors), the overall gas demand by 2006-07
would reach about 125 MMSCMD. The huge domestic gas
find by Reliance in the KG basin is also likely to
impact the major consumers of gas i.e., power and
fertilizer units. As regards the impact on the power
sector, a recent CRIS-INFAC study indicates that
40 MMSCMD gas can support around 10,400 MW of power
capacity. As regards the impact on the fertilizer
sector, the study states that 40 MMSCMD can support
around 29 MMTPA of urea capacity.
In the wake of recent world class gas finds in the
east coast and the imminent arrival of LNG cargos
on the western coast of India, Indian gas sector
is moving away from a supply constrained market to
a multi-source multi-market entity. In this emerging
scenario, the need of the hour is an integrally planned
optimum National Gas Grid to serve the entire industry
on an “open access” basis. Gas Pricing
Till the 1970’s, gas prices were based on the
recommendations given by expert committees. In the
early 1970’s, ONGC set gas prices on a negotiated
basis, resulting in different gas prices for different
consumer segments. In mid 70’s, the price of
natural gas was determined by the producers themselves,
based on the thermal equivalence of substitute fuels
and the opportunity cost to the consumer. In 1986,
a decision was taken by the Government of
India to fix uniform prices for natural gas on a
year to-year basis. This policy was followed till
1991. From January 1, 1992, the prices of natural
gas were fixed for a period of four years up to December
31, 1995. This pricing was based on the recommendation
of the Kelkar Committee, set up by the Government
to examine natural gas prices. Post December 1995,
the consumer price for non-North East places was
fixed by the Government at 1,850 Rs/tcm (thousand
cubic metre) (exclusive of royalty @ 10 per cent
and class tax varying from 0 to 19 per cent) for
a calorific value of 9,000 kilo calories. The corresponding
figure for North East India was 1,000 Rs/tcm with
a provision for further discounts. In January 1995,
the Government appointed a Committee under the chairmanship
of Mr T L Sankar to review the pricing of natural
gas. Based on the recommendations of this Committee,
Government fixed a price band of 2,150 Rs/tcm as
the lower limit and 2,850 Rs/tcm as the ceiling for
the consumer price. Producer Price actually payable
to producer (ONGC) was pre-determined at an amount
lower than the consumer price so that the difference
between the Consumer Price and Producer Price was
to be credited to a Gas Pool Account. Gas Pool Account
was established in order to encourage the development
of the gas industry in India by partly compensating
exploration and development companies for the low
margins received in the development and sale of gas
at prices fixed by the government. In addition to
the price as fixed above, royalty, taxes, duties
and other statutory levies on the production and
sale of natural gas is payable by the consumers.
The royalty on gas as fixed under the Oilfields Development
Act is 10 per cent of the wellhead price. For privately
operated fields, the royalty is fixed on the negotiated
wellhead prices. There is no cess on natural gas
(unlike crude oil) although a cess could be levied
under the law. There is no excise duty on nat-tive
Summary ural gas or on crude oil, as these are minerals
although excise duty is charged on petroleum products.
A sales tax is leviable at state rates if the sale
is within the state or at the central rate of 4 per
cent for inter-state sales. The sales tax rates vary
from state to state ranging from zero to 22 per cent.
It may be noted that GAIL does not make a margin
on merchant sales; it is allowed a return only on
its investment in the pipeline. In order to encourage
investment in the exploration of oil and gas, Government
has allowed the contractors, freedom to market oil
and gas produced under NELP. Accordingly, oil and
gas produced under NELP blocks are not covered under
the Administered Gas Pricing Mechanism and the producers
are free to market the gas at the market determined
prices. Recently, on July 23, 2003, a Group of Ministers,
represented by producer and user Ministries, met
and recommended the following: 1. The natural gas
prices to be increased on an adhoc basis with immediate
effect, as the prices have remained static since
October 1999. 2. A Tariff Committee to be appointed
to study the cost structure of ONGC and OIL, and
suggest a reasonable price, within six months, for
the period till complete deregulation of the gas
prices is brought about. 3. The price of gas is raised
from 2,850 Rs/tcm to Rs 3,200/tcm, a rise of 12.28
per cent. 4. The gas produced by the joint venture
of Tapti and Panna-Mukta of about 8 MSCMD to be sold
by GAIL/producer at market-determined price. However,
1 MSCMD of gas from Ravva joint venture field in
Krishna-Godavari basin to be be taken by GAIL and
adjustment for the higher cost made as per the existing
arrangement. 5. Gas Pool Account to be limited to
Rs 1 billion per annum as per the actual requirement
of compensation for concessional gas price in northeast
region and other purposes. 6. Gas produced by ONGC
and OIL from the new gas fields to be sold at a price
determined in terms of NELP contracts. That will
provide a level-playing field to these oil sector
PSUs with other players. 7. At present, the consumer
price for general consumers is 2,850 Rs/tcm whereas
for northeastern consumers the corresponding price
is 1,700 Rs/tcm which works out to be 60 per cent
of the general consumer prices. It is proposed that
the price of gas for northeastern region may be pegged
at 60 per cent of the revised price for general consumers.
The difference between the producer price and the
consumer price in the northeastern region may be
reimbursed to OIL from the Gas Pool Account as is
being done under the existing arrangement. 8. The
gas transportation charges along the HBJ pipeline
system were fixed at 1,150 Rs/ tcm with effect from
October 1, 1997 based on the recommendations of the
Sankar Committee. GAIL also uses natural gas internally,
as a fuel for operating the compressors required
to ensure desired pressure of gas in the HBJ pipeline
system. There are a total of six compressors stations
along the HBJ system of which two compressors were
commissioned after October 1, 1997. Further two compressor
stations at Jhabua and Hazira were augmented after
October 1, 1997. As a result, the total quantum of
natural gas used internally as fuel by GAIL has increased.
Simultaneously, the gas price has also increased
from the level considered during HBJ tariff fixation
by Sankar Committee. Therefore, the cost of transportation
be raised to 1160 Rs/tcm. In the meting of Committee
of Secretaries (CoS) in May 2003, ministry of Petroleum
and Natural Gas (MoP&NG) had suggested that the
gas prices be increased from Rs 2850/tcm to Rs 3850/tcm
whereas the Ministry of Power and Department of Fertilisers
indicated Rs 3250/tcm as their acceptable price for
gas. On July 23, 2003, Group of Minister (GoM), represented
by producer and user ministries met and recommended
an increase in natural gas prices of Rs 350/tcm.
They have also suggested that the Gas Pool Account
to be limited to Rs 1 billion per annum as per the
actual requirement of compensation for concessional
gas price in northeast region and other purposes.
However, MoP&NG is yet to take a decision on
these recommendations. Regulatory and Policy Initiatives
The Indian gas market is presently in a transition
from administered control to market driven system.
Under new policy framework (NELP, CBM) the companies
are free to market gas directly in the domestic market.
The LNG and pipeline gas imports are under Open General
Licence (OGL) and the domestic gas prices will ultimately
move to market based pricing system. It is certain
that gas market in India is under restructuring and
in near future there would be multiple companies
involved in gas marketing related activities. Over
medium/long term period, cross country gas pipelines
may also be required to meet growing gas demand in
existing and new emerging markets in the country.
In view of above changes taking place in the Indian
gas sector, a proper regulatory mechanism would be
needed to ensure a systematic development of the
Indian gas market in cost effective and competitive
manner. For any emerging gas market, the regulation
has to be sensitive to the needs of the pipeline
companies by creating a supportive environment to
attract investments in developing capital intensive
network of pipelines and to spread economic use of
gas. The issues like unbundling of marketing and
transmission activities and third party access to
pipelines would have to take into account the present
and historical background under which gas pipelines
have been set up and also the fact that there are
a large number of processing facilities along such
pipeline systems, which may suffer adverse economic
consequences by any third party access, if considered.
The regulatory framework thus has to be compatible
with the existing realities, needs of the domestic
market, project developers and sectoral requirements
over medium/long term. Government of India, Ministry
of Petroleum and Natural Gas has been examining various
models for hydrocarbon sector regulation in the country
and it is expected that there would be two separate
regulatory bodies i.e., one for the upstream sector,
mainly focusing on exploration and production of
oil and gas and another for the downstream sector
with focus on refining and marketing of petroleum
products as well as marketing of gas. It is also
expected that the regulatory framework would be finalized
soon and necessary approvals obtained for the introduction
of the same. Regulatory framework for downstream
sector has been finalized with the introduction of
Petroleum Regulatory Bill, 2002 in Parliament. For
the up-stream sector, the framework may be finalized
based on initial experience of the downstream so
that there are no missing links.
The Government has introduced attractive fiscal terms
and conditions in the oil and gas exploration policy.
This has facilitated the major gas discovery by Reliance,
However, apart from the discovery by Reliance, wells
have been drilled by other players but without major
success. Apart from the gas find by Reliance, the
gas reserves being discovered are small in size and
require advanced technologies and attractive fiscal
terms & conditions to be commercially viable.
The legal framework for the exploration and production
of oil and gas is provided mainly by the Oilfields
Development and Regulation Act, 1948, and the Petroleum
and Natural Gas Rules, 1959. The Act was amended
in 1999 to provide for the NELP (New Exploration
Licensing Policy). The downstream sector is regulated
mainly by the Indian Petroleum Act and a number of
orders passed by the government under the Essential
Commodities Act.
The DGH (Directorate General of Hydrocarbons) was
set up in 1993 under the administrative control of
the MoPNG, with the objective of ensuring correct
reservoir management practices,
reviewing and monitoring exploratory programmes,
development plans for national oil companies and
private companies, and monitoring production and
optimum utilization of gas fields.
Attractive New Exploration and Licensing Policy (NELP):
With the objective of enhancing exploratory activity,
the government has come out with NELP with attractive
terms. So far, the government has announced four
rounds of NELP and awarded 70 blocks. The GoI has
approved the award of contracts under NELP-1 in about
four-and-a-half months since the bid closure date.
The short time-span in granting approval for the
award of contracts is a record of sorts. Similarly,
in the NELP-II round, the government awarded the
blocks within two months from the bid closing date
and the contracts were signed one-and-a-half months
thereafter. Similarly, in NELP III, the blocks were
awarded within three months of the bid closing date.
The NELP IV was announced in May 2003 and 24 blocks
have been offered for bidding. NELP IV includes ultra
deepwater blocks for the first time. The government
has signed 50 production-sharing contracts (PSCs)
since April 2000. Of these, 47 contracts have been
under the new exploration licensing policy (NELP)
alone. The number of PSCs thus signed in the past
15 months is more than twice those executed in the
previous 10 years. Under NELP-II, the entire process
of award, negotiations and approval of the contracts
for 23 exploration blocks has been completed in a
record time of about three months. Award of contracts
under NELP I, II amd III in a short time span and
announcement of NELP IV is probably a reflection
of the seriousness with which the GoI is considering
involving the private sector in oil & gas exploration
activities in India.
Integrated companies with international presence
The private fully integrated international companies
(that is, having exploration and production, refining
and distribution as well as petrochemical plants)
often with oversized downstream activities (compared
with their upstream) following the nationalisation
of their concessions during the 1970s. The operations
of these players are also geographically diversified.
These players have the advantages of economies of
scale and scope apart from the synergies of following
an integrated operation. As a result, these companies
are among the most profitable ones in the global
oil & gas industry. Further, the profitability
of these companies is driven by the upstream operations--the
performance of which, in turn, is dictated by the
trend in oil prices.
The national oil companies of the producing countries,
which are focused mainly on exploration and production.
However, there are some in this category that are
trying to break into refining and distribution and
petrochemicals, to achieve a better balance in their
business. The national companies of the consumer
countries who often are limited to refining, distribution
and petrochemical activities and who, in size, are
quite modest in comparison with the heavyweights
like integrated companies with international presence
and national oil companies of the producing region.
These are the players, who have evolved due to non-traditional
skills such as deal making, financing, trading, and
commercial etc. Examples include players like the
erstwhile Enron and Tosco. Historically, Enron's
capability was limited to conventional pipeline aggregation
skills and contract gas supply skills. By employing
innovative financial, risk management and trading
skills, it emerged as a leading energy player with
business worth over $250 mn, before collapsing in
2001 due to certain financial irregularities. Similarly,
Tosco's skills in acquiring refineries at cheap valuations
and operating them efficiently resulted in the
emergence of a profitable niche player in the refinery
segment.
In India, Distribution and marketing of gas is done
mainly by GAIL. The other players in the natural
gas distribution industry are small and regional
players, such as Gujarat Gas (with operations in
Gujarat), Mahanagar Gas Ltd. (in Mumbai), Indraprastha
Gas Ltd. (in Delhi), and the two State Government
undertakings in the North-Eastern States (Assam Gas
Company Ltd. and Tripura Natural Gas Company Ltd.).
OIL also has a marginal share of the natural gas
distribution business.
The exploration and production of natural gas in
the country is primarily undertaken by the ONGC (Oil
and Natural Gas Corporation) Ltd and the OIL (Oil
India Ltd). The ONGC has also set up a wholly owned
subsidiary, ONGC Videsh Ltd, to look after the company’s
overseas operations. Relience group is another important
player, albeit in the private sector.
GAIL (Gas Authority of India Ltd) is responsible
for transportation and marketing of natural gas.
Set up in 1984, it now operates 4000 km of pipeline,
including the 2702-km-long Hazira–Bijapur–Jagdishpur
pipeline extending from the western coast to North
India, and over 1300 km of pipeline in different
states.
Gas is marketed by smaller regional companies in
India—by the Mahanagar Gas Ltd, a joint venture
between GAIL and British Gas in Mumbai, Maharashtra;
by Gujarat Gas Company in the cities of Surat, Bharuch,
and Ankleshwar in Gujarat; by the Baroda Municipal
Corporation in the city of Baroda, Gujarat; and by
Indraprastha Gas Ltd, a joint venture between GAIL,
BPCL, and the Government of the National Capital
Territory of Delhi.
The current domestic gas price is fixed according
to the Fuel Oil Import parity price (75 per cent
parity), between a floor of RS.2150/MCM and a ceiling
of Rs.2850/MCM. It is expected that the Government
of India is likely to raise the ceiling price to
India is likely to raise the ceiling price to Rs.3200/MCM.
Progressive deregulation of prices is expected to
take place over the next few years as the gas market
evolves into a competitive market.
[See also National Gas grid section earlier]
Power sector, major growth in demand for gas in India
will continue to come from the power sector. The
share of the power sector in the total gas consumption
is expected to grow from the current level of 40
per cent to a level of 45 per cent by 2005-06.
The share of fertiliser sector in gas consumption
is expected to go down to a level of 30 per cent
by the year by 2005-06 but it will continue to be
an important sector of consumption.
The sponge iron sector is really coming in a major
way – it is estimated that by 2012 the sector
will have a share of 54%, up from about 33% now.
The transport sector is another important sector,
as use of CNG is expected to grow many folds
The Road Ahead Circa 1974, with the huge oil & gas
discovery in Bombay High field in 1974, followed
by the giant South Bassein free gas find in 1978,
the question then was “How to develop a market
for this gas? The answer then was GAIL and the HBJ
pipeline. Ten years later, the scenario turned 180
degrees, when the gas demand exceeded the supply
and the question changed to “How to find more
gas?” The
answer then was NELP, CBM and OGL. Now in the year
2003, with huge indigenous gas finds and LNG cargos
set to reach the Indian shores, along with the prospects
of the growing power, industrial and nascent retail
gas segments, Indian gas sector is moving from a
supply constrained phase into an era of multi-source
multi market entity. The power and fertilizer sectors
would definitely influence the pace and growth of
gas demand in the country. The power sector troubled
over State Electricity Boards’ (SEBs) finances
is gradually turning around with the help of Accelerated
Power Development and Restructuring Program (APDRP)
initiated by the Government. The progress in SEB
restructuring, privatization of distribution and
especially tariff rationalization will enable the
power sector to afford more gas as a cleaner and
efficient fuel for power generation. Also, the new
Electricity Act, 2003 is expected to have a positive
impact on gas demand in the power sector. In Fertilizer
Sector, too, policy changes regarding the price rationalization
and reduction in subsidies are likely to impact the
use of gas as a feedstock against naphtha. The demand
would also emanate both from existing users and from
newer applications of natural gas. In the supply
side, possible gas finds from NELP-I, NELP-II, NELP-III,
NELP-IV initiatives are expected 15 to energise the
growth of gas sector. Competitive pricing (vis-à-vis
alternative fuels) and budgetary and fiscal concessions
from the Government of India would be the key factors
dictating the successful affordability of LNG in
India. Energised by the supply side developments,
the market would ask for more and the pipeline gas
from Bangladesh, Myanmar and Iran may also fructify
in phases. Unconventional sources like CBM, Natural
Gas Hydrates, Underground Coal Gasification, etc.
would also get tapped on experimental basis and economics
permitting would get scaled up on commercial scale.
The other factors that will influence the growth
of gas markets are Technology and Environment Concerns.
Increased monetisation of reserves is expected due
to advances in deep drilling, which will be further
coupled with enhanced viability to bring gas due
to advances in logistics – LNG, deep sea pipelines,
CNG by ship, VOTRANS CNG, Coselle, Gas-to-Liquid,
etc. One can also expect increase in gas demand due
to the technological developments in end user side
like Distributed power, direct gas use in home appliances,
air conditioning, etc. thus developing of new markets
for gas usage. Share of gas is expected to grow in
the industries, transport and homes due to sustained
thrust from judiciary and policies on its environmental
benefits. Emerging carbon trading may also provide
additional incentive for increased gas use. In the
infrastructure front, two decades after the HBJ in
1984, perhaps the answer this time around is an optimally
planned “National Gas Grid” serving multiple
(private and state) producers, shippers and customers
of gas. Such a market development is expected to
be accompanied by regulatory changes to support the
new market rules and already, Petroleum Regulatory
Bill has been tabled in the Indian Parliament. Setting
up of Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Board along
with introduction of open access principle and Cost
of Services based framework of transportation tariff
determination will fuel the growth of emerging natural
gas scenario. Further unbundling of transportation
and marketing would add fillip to healthy competition.
Thus, in the coming years, key factors like Deregulation,
Gas Pricing and Tariff, Technology, Globalization
and Environmental Concerns would lead to a buoyant
growth of gas market in India. The increasing size
of the gas markets will continue to be the driving
force for organizing more gas supplies and establishing
integrated pipeline infrastructure in India. With
the emergence of a gassy hydrocarbon province along
with her favorable geographic disposition, natural
gas is all set to propel India into an era of clean,
efficient and internationally competitive industrialization
and along with these developments, India is poised
to emerge as the potential growth hub for natural
gas in the Asian region.
Exchanges dealing in natural gas futures
It launched the world’s first natural gas
futures contract in April 1990 with Henry Hub as
the reference point. Volumes and “open interest” (the
number of futures or options natural gas contracts
outstanding in the market) have grown rapidly, and
the NYMEX gas contract is the fastest growing instrument
in the exchange’s history. The estimated trading
volume, around 725 Btu (20 bcm) of gas a day, is
ten times the amount of gas delivered daily in the
United States. In October 1992, NYMEX marked another
milestone in the energy markets when it launched “options” on
natural-gas futures, giving market participants still
another instrument to manage their market risk. The
exchange allows hedgers and investors to trade anonymously
through futures brokers. NYMEX gas instruments have
attracted private and institutional investors who
seek to profit by assuming the risks that the industry
seeks to avoid in exchange for the possibility of
rewards. A wide cross-section of the gas industry
is active on the futures market from producers to
end-users: producers, processors, local distribution
companies and marketers, industrial and commercial
gas users. The marketers, predictably, are the largest
participants accounting for 69% of the open interest
in 2000. Gas suppliers use the NYMEX futures contracts
to provide a variety of services to help customers
manage their price risks. These include fixing gas
costs or expenditures and offering ceiling prices.
Marketers often manage the market risk for their
customers. As a result, local distribution utilities
themselves accounted for only 1.7% of the reportable
open interest for 2000 – although a much larger
share of transactions was performed on their behalf.
In Canada, the NGX, located in Calgary, provides
electronic trading and clearing services to natural-gas
buyers and sellers in Canadian markets. The NGX started
service in February 1994. Over the past eight years,
NGX has grown to serve over 150 customers with trading
activity averaging 200,000 TJ (5 bcm) per month.
NGX is wholly owned by the OM Group, the world”s
leading provider of transaction technology. In Canada,
the regulation of commodity trading is under provincial
jurisdiction. The Alberta Securities Commission is
NGX’s lead regulator.
In the United Kingdom, the IPE launched gas-futures
contracts in 1997. They are based on deliveries of
natural gas at the NBP. The IPE gas futures market
is a transparent, screen-based system, which provides
a mechanism for risk management, hedging and in some
cases the physical delivery of gas. The IPE traded
a daily average of 60 million therms of natural gas,
or approximately 60% of the UK’s daily consumption.
Production of Natural Gas
Unit: Million cubic meters, Figures for 2002-03 are
for April-November
Source: Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas
*included in Assam. Figures for 2002-03 are for
April-November
Demand for natural gas as per Hydrocarbon Vision
2025
Unit: mmscmd
Demand / Domestic Prodution of Natural Gas (MMSCMD)
As per Hydrocarbon Vision 2005, demand forecast is
Sector -wise breakup for Natural Gas consumption
As per Hydrocarbon Vision 2005,
Sector |
2002 |
2007 |
2012 |
Power |
43 |
39 |
29 |
Fertilizer |
20 |
16 |
11 |
Sponge Iron |
31 |
38 |
54 |
Others |
6 |
7 |
6 |
Unit: MMSCMD
Off take (million cubic metres) of natural gas
by industry:
995/96 to 2001/02
1
Industry |
1995/96a |
1996/97a |
1997/98a |
1998/99a |
1999/00 |
2000/01 |
2001/02b |
Energy purposes |
Power generation |
6,836 |
6,935 |
8,114 |
8,714 |
8,829 |
8,801 |
9,214 |
Industrial fuel |
2,301 |
2,631 |
3,106 |
3,005 |
2,329 |
2,870 |
2,979 |
Tea plantation |
111 |
130 |
117 |
147 |
140 |
151 |
147 |
Domestic fuel |
178 |
184 |
206 |
193 |
250 |
335 |
485 |
Captive use/ LPG |
589 |
618 |
569 |
911 |
4,840 |
5,004 |
5,339 |
Total |
10,015 |
10,498 |
12,112 |
12,970 |
16,424 |
17,199 |
18,234 |
Non-energy purposes |
Fertilizer industry |
7,602 |
7,625 |
8,752 |
8,869 |
8,592 |
8,480 |
7,957 |
Petrochemicals |
474 |
509 |
649 |
650 |
666 |
779 |
909 |
Others |
_ |
_ |
_ |
_ |
1,203 |
1,402 |
937 |
Total |
8,076 |
8,134 |
9,401 |
9,519 |
10,461 |
10,661 |
9,803 |
Grand total |
18,091 |
18,632 |
21,513 |
22,489 |
26,885 |
27,860 |
28,037 |
aexcludes some sales by the Oil and Natural Gas
Corporation Limited
bprovisional
Source
[TERI Energy Data Directory & Yearbook 2002/2003]
|